Project Summary
This project evaluated bioclimatic-envelope models (from 19 bioclimate variables) in order to project availability of suitable bioclimatic conditions for 20 terrestrial species, identified as species of concern (SOC) in the South Central United States. We used various climate projections derived from general circulation models (GCMs) and they were post-processed via application of a simple statistical downscaling method. We compared future projected climate envelope suitability results produced from combinations of four GCMs and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5] for two future time periods (2050: average for 2041 to 2060 and 2070: average for 2061 to 2080).
Our objectives were to develop models of present day and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for the 20 focal species and to compare how bioclimatic-envelope suitability is projected to change among different climatic scenarios. The focal species were identified a priori as having some vulnerability to climate change or dependence on the climatic variables likely to be affected by climate change. We hypothesized that the projection results would show most of the areas that currently possess suitable bioclimatic conditions for focal species would convert to unsuitable conditions in the future; and that a majority of the focal species would appear to be at high risk due to climate change.
We obtained species occurrence datasets from Natural Heritage programs in the tri-state study area (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas). For all species, presence-only data was used as absence data was not consistently available across all states for all species. Many robust features can be identified in future projections of species distributions under different climate scenarios, however not without their limitations. By utilizing data products derived from four GCMs and two RCPs, we were able to explore sources of climate variable uncertainty in this study.
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Citation:
Salas, E.A.L., V.A. Seamster, N.M. Harings, K.G. Boykin, C.A. Caldwell, E. Muldavin, R. McCollough, and K.W. Dixon. 2016. Modeling the Effects of Environmental Change on Crucial Wildlife Habitat. Research Completion Report. Center for Applied Spatial Ecology, New Mexico Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico. 85 pp.